A Quantitative Playbook for Investing in Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Marty Kendall

23 Aug 2025 • 12 min read

Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs) are rewriting the rules of financial engineering.

Inspired by Michael Saylor—an aeronautical engineer turned corporate strategist—the BTC-TC model represents a departure from traditional finance. It exploits inefficiencies in the fiat system and requires us to model it not as a financial instrument, but as an engineered system.

Over the past year, we’ve been refining a framework to understand the many moving parts that influence BTC-TC trajectories. Now, with more data available from more companies, we can understand the mechanics of BTC-tCs to define a defensible, dynamic system that helps investors make informed decisions and plot chart sustainable growth strategies.

Our objectives are ambitious but straightforward:

· Equip investors to manage risk, allocate capital more effectively, and avoid hype-driven traps.

· Provide BTC-TCs with a framework to grow steadily, avoiding the “too fast, too soon” crash-and-burn mNAV implosion cycle that we’ve seen in many companies recently.

This article details the latest iteration of our system, the factors that drive it, and how investors can apply it in practice.

The Four Levers Driving BTC-TC Performance

Our allocation framework is based on four key levers. Each portfolio type—aggressive, balanced, or conservative—weights these differently.

● Conservative portfolios prioritise large BTC stack size and long-term trajectory.

● Aggressive portfolios emphasise short-term acceleration and positioning relative to trend.

● Balanced portfolios sit in between, blending growth and stability.

Our aim is not to predict perfectly, which is impossible, but to quantify the most critical factors in a way that guides smarter decisions to help investors allocate to the trades that have the highest probability of success.

Stack Size: Scale, Stability, and Yield Trade-offs

Stack size is straightforward: the amount of BTC the company holds.

But a larger stack size can be good or bad, depending on your goals:

· Conservative investors see large stacks as a sign of stability, liquidity, and long-term survival.

· Aggressive investors see them as a drag on yield—because yield (growth in BTC per share) naturally slows as the stack grows.

Because BTC Yield is contingent on the current stack size, BTC Yield tends to decrease with time. The chart below shows days since the start of the Bitcoin strategy era (BSE) vs BTC Yield (%/day).

MetaPlanet is the best example of a company that has continued to grow its BTC stack exponentially for 15 months. Meanwhile, other companies that start with an aggressively high yield have to slow down sooner. As we’ve seen all too often, once the initial pools of capital dry up, growth can quickly slow, leading to rapid mNAV implosion.

Perhaps in 5-10 years, when the BTC-TC gold rush is over, it will be the companies with the biggest BTC stack that will be the winners. Along the way, the bigger fish will eat the little fish. BTC-TCs that don’t continue to grow will likely be acquired by successful companies looking for cheap bitcoin.

But there will be a handful of smaller BTC-TCs that will successfully grow into tomorrow’s giants—identifying them early is where the upside lies.

The Growth Curve: Exponential to S-Curve

While we all like to imagine that our favourite company’s share price or BTC stack size can continue to grow exponentially, exponential growth, by definition, is unsustainable, especially when there is a limit of 21m BTC to be bought. Regardless of a company’s promises or goals, we need to look at its actual track record of stacking.

It’s easier for BTC-TCs to find eager investors to get in at the IPO, but continued growth becomes more challenging once they have to rely on the ATM and transition to preferred shares. Their access to capital in their market and relationship with fund managers who are willing to support their ongoing growth becomes critical.

As an example, the charts below show both the S-curve and exponential trend regression through the BTC stacking data for Smarter Web Company to date. While the s-curve can’t give a perfect forecast of the future — it will adapt to more data as it comes in — we can see that the s-curve is a much better fit than the exponential.

While most people focus on the ultimate stack size predicted by these regression charts, the most important thing is the rate of growth and how fast it's changing.

The faster a company grows initially, the sooner it will reach the inflection point where the rate of growth starts to slow. Based on current data, SWC's inflection point occurred on 21 July 2025. To its credit, though, SWC has continued to surprise, raising capital for solid BTC stack growth, but eventually, this has to slow.

In contrast, MetaPlanet has a much longer track record of consistent stacking and is hugging the exponential growth trajectory. However, because there is a limit to how much BTC they can ultimately get, we have to set a limit somewhere. So to get a sensible result, we’ve set a max stack of 15 times their current BTC stack, which ultimately gives them 283k BTC, which is a little more than their end of 2027 target of 1% of all BTC.

The s-curve regression gives them an inflection date of 4 November 2026, meaning they have a much longer runway of growth before their growth rate starts to slow down.

Predicting Future BTC Yield and mNAV

The blue line in the chart below shows the slowing BTC growth rate (i.e. daily change in BTC stack) based on the regression curve, from which we can infer the future BTC Yield (orange line) as it drifts down to 0 and mNAV (green line) as it ultimately drifts to 1.

While mNAV gets a lot of attention from those with a high time preference, the real engine room of BTC-TCs is the growth in BTC per share, combined with the long-term growth of BTC relative to fiat. Even though our model assumes a slowing of BTC Yield and decreasing mNAV from here, their BTC per share growth still looks very healthy for years to come.

From this, we can project each company's share price relative to BTC (assuming BTC follows simple power law growth).

What Will it Take to Keep Growing?

By projecting these curves, we can estimate not just long-term CAGR but also the daily BTC buy rates and spend rates needed to sustain growth. For example, MetaPlanet may need to acquire 237 BTC per day by November 2026, spending $39M daily by mid-2027.

While no model is perfect, this approach gives us a consistent way to compare all companies.

Forecast CAGR

As shown in the chart below, MetaPlanet (thicker gold line) may not be the fastest horse in the short term. Still, because it has a long history of consistent stacking, it is currently forecast to have the highest CAGR over the next two years (369%), which is better than pretty much everything outside the BTC-TC space.

· For the aggressive portfolio, we use the 90-day s-curve CAGR.

· For the balanced portfolio, we use 90 days.

· For the conservative portfolio, we use the two-year look-ahead CAGR.

The model currently forecasts some crazy high short-term returns that seem inconceivable in the TradFi context, but keep in mind we’ve seen some astounding returns achieved by BTC-TCs like MSTR, SWC and MetaPlanet in their early growth phase. Today, many companies are trying to stack even harder. But, every day that they don’t continue to buy BTC to keep up with their projected growth will reduce their returns. Hence, our approach to portfolio allocation needs to be dynamic.

Catch The Lows and Sell into Strength

The trend reversion parameter allows us to make a more swing trading approach to BTC TCs. While we don’t know where the price of a BTC-TC is headed next, we can use the past data to understand where it is sitting in its normal range.

In the chart below, we can see how MetaPlanet has oscillated within its fair value range, peaking in February 2025, bottoming out in April and then peaking again in June. It seems to be making a new low in the % rank oscillator now. While nothing’s certain, as long as it can get traction with its new preferred shares, there’s a solid chance price will explode up again in the short term.

The green dotted line shows the projected price based on the s-curve regression described above. While it aligns well with previous price action, we see some slowing on the log scale plot due to our s-curve modelling of their future BTC growth rate.

The red, green and blue lines show the price trajectory if we return to the forecast trend line over the next 30, 90 and 180 days, respectively. For the aggressive portfolio allocation, we use the 30-day CAGR, 90 days for the balanced and 180 days for the conservative.

Back in May, our system was highlighting that MetaPlanet was running hard and approaching the 95^th percentile and was likely to peak soon. The trend reversion component of our system allows us to buy the lows and sell out into strength as the stock starts to peak.

For contrast, the chart below shows the 30, 90 and 180-day trajectories for SWC. Notice how, while the system is super bullish on SWC in the short term, because it seems to be slowing its stacking growth rate recently, the long-term CAGR won’t be as great.

The chart below shows the long-term modelled price trajectory of SWC as its BTC Yield slows, showing that the growth in its underlying BTC will keep it moving up and to the right. With a relatively low mNAV, there is a lower risk that price will fall. Meanwhile, if a company has a high mNAV when its growth abruptly slows, the outlook might not be so great.

It’s been fun to work with some of the BTC-TCs that we’re developing dashboards for at mNAV.com to help them strategically plan their growth, funding and deployment of capital to maintain a consistent BTC Yield to avoid mNAV implosion.

If you’re using the aggressive system, you’ll need to be much more attentive, as SWC may slow its growth in the coming months relative to its super-aggressive initial growth stage.

Days to flipping is similar to Days to Cover mNAV (shown in the chart below), but considers the future trajectory based on the s-curve growth. Back in May, we ran a simple backtest based on DTC mNAV that shows a 100x in one year by continually rotating to fast-moving BTC-TCs. While harder to backtest, we’d expect Days to Flippening to yield even better results because it anticipates impending slowdowns and takes action early.

Days to Flippening simply the number of days until the company's value of bitcoin per share exceeds their current share price, assuming power law growth in BTC, and the bitcoin per share calculated using the s-curve forecast.

Check out the grey horizontal arrows in the two charts above for SWC and MetaPlanet to understand what this looks like conceptually.

Filtering the Noise: Model Fit and Confidence Scores

Finally, we also apply the model fit score and s-curve confidence score.

The model fit score is based on the log-log correlation (R2) between price and bitcoin value per share.

Based on the data to date, the actual price of companies with a high model fit score, like MSTR, appears to be moving with the value of their bitcoin, hence we can assume that the market currently views them as bitcoin proxies.

The model fit score gets applied to the trend reversion, s-curve trend and flipping scores, effectively demoting companies that aren’t yet behaving as bitcoin proxies.

Meanwhile, the s-curve confidence score is based on how well the s-curve regression fits the actual stacking data. Companies like MetaPlanet and SWC that stack consistently over a significant period get rewarded because we have a high degree of confidence that that trend will continue. Meanwhile, other companies that don’t announce consistent and regular buys effectively get demoted. Silence and inconsistency spook risk-averse investors.

Designing Portfolios for Rockets vs. Survivors

The aggressive portfolio is designed to catch fast-moving rockets that you may have to rotate out of before too long if they can’t keep up what they’ve started, while the conservative approach takes the long view and lets you sleep soundly without as much monitoring and trading.

Aggressive Portfolio

Currently, Sequans, H100, DDC, SWC and Belgravia Hartford are stacking hard and fast. Hence, they get a big slice of the pie, but this may change if they slow down for whatever reason (e.g. they can’t achieve sufficient liquidity to raise funds via ATM once their initial investor capital base dries up).

Conservative Portfolio

Meanwhile, the conservative portfolio allocation tries to prioritise companies that are more likely to still be growing in a couple of years. Companies like MetaPlanet, Strategy and Capital B already have a large BTC Stack and have a relatively long history of building their BTC stack consistently.

Balance Portfolio

And the balanced portfolio is a balance between the two. It takes a smaller position in the fast-moving rockets, but that will grow if the company continues to grow their BTC per share successfully while rotating out of the larger companies as their growth starts to slow.

Dynamic Portfolio Allocation

Importantly, these portfolios are dynamic and will update as new data becomes available. The system doesn’t pay much attention to promises or lofty goals, just consistent growth of bitcoin per share.

We hope our system provides not just a data-driven approach to portfolio allocation for investors that reduces the impact of fear and greed but also a clear playbook for BTC-TCs to follow to succeed in this market.

Practical Playbook: Applying the Model in the Real World

One approach would be to automatically trim your positions weekly based on the updated portfolio splits. But this could result in high trading and tax costs.

Instead, one could use the fair value ranges to set laddered limit orders to buy into new stocks as they fall to the bottom of their fair value range to increase your weighting and then set sell limit orders as the stock approaches the upper limit to unwind your position as it starts to top out.

We’ll cover these fair value ranges in more detail in upcoming update articles, so stay tuned.

Tweak to Suit Your Goals and Preferences

Of course, these allocations are not hard and fast rules that you have to follow to the letter. The companies you can trade will depend on your location and your trading platform.

You should also do your own due diligence to research the companies to make sure you’re comfortable with them and make your own judgment on whether you think they can maintain their current growth trajectory based on their ability to continue to siphon capital in their unique market.

This is simply a quantitative model, and you may want to apply your own subjective qualitative overlays.

The Road Ahead: Dashboard Integration and Updates

In the near term, we’ll continue publishing updates based on the model as new data emerges.

In the medium term, we plan to integrate these allocations into a dashboard where investors can customise portfolios around their tradable universe.

The BTC-TC landscape moves fast. Whether you’re chasing rockets or building for the long haul, this framework helps you separate signal from noise and act with conviction.

Feel free to drop any questions about the system or suggestions for what you’d like to see us develop in the future.