All-Time Highs – Where to Next?
With Bitcoin smashing through its previous all-time highs, we’re entering what some call the fun zone. But where to next? Are we reaching our peak or just getting started?
In this issue, we zoom out to examine the broader macro trends shaping Bitcoin’s future—and provide the latest intel on the rise of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs).
The Bitcoin Big Picture
As I type, Bitcoin is charging into uncharted territory.
While it might feel like we’re getting overheated, zooming out reveals that BTC is still cruising along its power law channel. Currently, it sits at the 68th percentile—warm, but well below the 72nd percentile spike we observed after the US election.
If history repeats itself and BTC peaks at the 99th percentile towards the end of this year, we could see a price of around $300k.
That said, this cycle is different. Retail FOMO and leverage seem absent, replaced by a more strategic and sustained accumulation of treasury companies. The result? Slower, steadier growth.
We’ve also observed that the gradient of the power law is increasing, reflecting the ETF-fueled influx of institutional capital. Remember: the power law isn’t static. It evolves as new data arrives, constantly recalibrating our expectations.
Some argue that the power law underestimates Bitcoin’s true potential. But take a step back and look at the linear (non-log) scale, and it’s clear: the future is still wildly bullish. Even in scenarios of monetary debasement or hyperinflation, the power law adapts, giving us a dynamic guide to both opportunity and risk.
Liquidity, Inflation & Election Cycles
Back in April, markets were spooked by DOGE’s proposed spending cuts and tariffs, but those fears seem to be fading. The more likely scenario? A return to rising government debt and more liquidity—rocket fuel for Bitcoin.
Historically, this phase of the US election cycle has been characterised by a surge in government spending, which injects liquidity into the system. While correlation isn’t causation, Bitcoin seems to track closely with M2 money supply, with a 9-week lag. If that trend holds, the outlook is undeniably bullish, with $250k BTC in the next three months.