Bitcoin: Flatlining or Coiling to Strike?

For what’s meant to be a notoriously volatile asset, Bitcoin has been... well, unusually boring lately—especially for those of us used to the high-octane world of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs).

But zoom out, and a clearer picture emerges.

Bitcoin Still Dancing with the Power Law

Bitcoin has been bouncing around its long-term power law trend for over a year now. It’s currently running a little warm—but nowhere near overheated.

Recently, we updated our power law quantile model. All the quantile lines nudged slightly higher, and the slope of the trend has steepened—both of which are bullish signals.

However, the long-term trend remains intact, with an improving R² and steadily decreasing volatility with a ‘boring’ 30% CAGR. 

Volatility at Record Lows: Calm Before the Storm?

In fact, volatility is now at an all-time low.

If you're a permabull, you might call this the calm before the storm—the spring coiling tighter before an “omega candle” lights the fuse.

But that’s not the only explanation.