BTC Treasuries, Power Law Projections & the Global Stacking Race Heats Up
Welcome to the third edition of MicroStrategist Weekly—your go-to source for cutting-edge insights on the Bitcoin treasury revolution.
As companies across the globe, from Tokyo to Surrey, race to stack BTC, we’re here to chart the winners, flag the risks, and spotlight the hidden gems driving this financial transformation as the BTC Treasury gold rush unfolds.
Bitcoin Holding Strong Above Trend: Safe Zone for Now
Bitcoin continues to cruise along above the power law trend line.
It’s currently getting a little warm, but far from overheated, at the 63rd percentile, which is currently in safe territory, well away from the upper power law quantiles of FOMO leverage that usually precede a rapid pullback.
Everyone wants to know what BTC will be worth in the future, so the table below shows the power law values, along with the 1st, 33rd, 85th, and 99th percentile quantiles, for the next ten years.
Macroeconomics, wars, and interest rate changes are hard to predict, but there’s a high probability that we’ll be somewhere between these guardrails in the future.
Global Liquidity Watch: M2 Suggests BTC Has Fuel Left
Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge, so keeping an eye on M2 enables us to understand whether the money supply is contracting or expanding, and hence where BTC may head next.
The growth in global M2 money supply has been taking a breather for the past few weeks, but assuming a 12-week lead, Bitcoin has a long way to go over the next few months.
Corporate Stacking: The BTC Treasury Race is On
The corporate BTC stacking race continues to accelerate with more companies joining in every week. As you’ll see, our comparison charts are starting to get pretty cluttered (sorry)!
While many might think the smaller companies are less critical, they’re the ones that can grow their BTC stack the fastest. Continued BTC per share growth high (i.e. BTC Yield) is the most important thing to look for. Once the BTC stack grows, it becomes harder to find growing pools of capital to harvest and sustain funding for further growth.
Companies that can stay above the exponential trend line (linear on a log chart) are the ones that will become the new contenders, while those that fall below their exponential trend line will become the also-rans.
Stack Speed Rankings: DTC mNAV Update
The Days to Cover mNAV, first proposed by Adam Back, is proving to be the most critical metric in helping us understand where the share price is headed, often serving as a leading indicator of share price growth over the next few months. Companies with low DTC mNAV are earning their premium quickly.
Keep reading to see updated Days to Cover mNAV charts for all relevant stocks, as well as updated valuation charts for Strategy, MetaPlanet, Semler, The Blockchain Group and Smarter Web Company. We'll also introduce our new portfolio balancing strategy.