How Much Bitcoin Could MicroStrategy Stack in 2025?

Strategy’s relentless Bitcoin accumulation has left many wondering how far they can go in 2025.

With 553,000 BTC already stacked, the answer depends on two key factors:

·         Where BTC’s price heads next

·         How Strategy manages its leverage

Depending on how things unfold, Strategy could end the year with anywhere between 719k and 906k BTC—a jaw-dropping escalation in their role as Bitcoin’s corporate custodian.

The Leverage Line: Walking the Tightrope Between Risk and Reward

In Strategy’s Q3 earnings call, they highlighted their long-term target leverage ratio of 20-30%. 

They seemed to be actively signalling to the big money players that, rather than risking blowing up in the next BTC drawdown, they plan to manage their debt ‘intelligently’.

The (Debt + Preferred)/Bitcoin NAV ratio is now prominently displayed on Strategy’s dashboard, just under the mNAV.  This is simply the total debt (i.e. convertible bonds) plus the volume of preferred shares divided by the value of their BTC stack.

Strategy’s Long-Term Leverage Ratio

The chart below shows MSTR’s leverage ratio since it started its bitcoin treasury strategy (along with the BTC price for reference). 

Notice how, in November 2022, their leverage ratio peaked at 134% in the depths of the post-FTX bear market when BTC dropped to $16k and MSTR dropped to $13.  This chart would be enough to scare any self-respecting pension fund away, fearing that Strategy would blow up in the next BTC drawdown. 

In the most recent Q4 2024 earnings call, it seemed like they were trying to signal to the big money that they now had clear guidelines to limit the risk of blowing up in the future due to taking on too much debt. 

While they can use more leverage to buy BTC using convertible bonds (and the preferred stocks, STRF and STRK), they can also use the ATM on the common stock to reduce the leverage. 

Importantly, this 20-30% ‘intelligent leverage’ range limits how much they can borrow to buy more Bitcoin, thus limiting their maximum BTC stack.  But, as you will see, it’s still a lot, especially if Bitcoin spikes, which will reduce their leverage ratio further. 

As discussed in our last article, MSTR’s ATM has lowered its debt ratio, giving it much more room to hammer the convertible bonds when volatility ramps up again. This will enable them to create a much bigger BTC stack by the end of the year.  

Slow Grind or Pump & Dump? MSTR’s Stacking Forecasts

Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing where Bitcoin will go for the rest of 2025.  For this analysis, I’ve used two scenarios:

1.     Bitcoin continues along from the current price in line with the power law, and

2.     Bitcoin follows the previous cycles, peaking at $256k in November 2025 at the 99^th percentile quantile (as shown in the chart below). 

The Ballistic Math Behind MSTR’s BTC Bet

Similar to how we’ve estimated MSTR’s price based on BTC’s price, we can also develop a relationship between BTC price and market cap using the data since June 27, 2022. This ballistic relationship (a 2nd-order polynomial in the log-log space) helps us predict MSTR’s growth with its continued Bitcoin stacking. 

Our fair value model also enables us to calculate a forecast mNAV (red line in the chart below) and thus a Bitcoin NAV based on the market cap. 

Scenario 1: Slow and Steady—BTC to $115k

In the simple power law continuation scenario, with BTC reaching $115k at the end of the year, Strategy would increase its leverage between now and October 2025, when it would hit 30%. 

This would get them to 719,011 BTC on 31 December 2025, giving them a BTC Yield of 0.15% per day or 70% per year.

The chart below shows Strategy’s all-important BTC per share with a 0.15% per day yield.

The chart below shows what could happen to MSTR’s share price if BTC follows the boring old power law, with a fair value of $912 at the end of the year, with a CAGR of 170% p.a..  But if BTC rips, things go much higher!

Scenario 2: Halving Rocket Ride to $256k

In the second scenario, Bitcoin follows previous halving cycles, peaking at $256k in November 2025. We hit peak leverage in July 2025. Leverage then lowers as BTC rips through to the end of the year, only to rise again after the BTC peak. 

In this scenario, we get to 906,520 BTC on 31 December 2025, giving them a BTC Yield of 0.22% per day or 120% per year. 

This scenario would take Strategy from 2.8% of the total BTC supply to a massive 3.9%. Importantly, this analysis doesn’t account for a supply squeeze, where Bitcoin becomes harder to get. This might limit how much BTC Strategy could stack, but it would increase the BTC price, MSTR, and every other leveraged bitcoin equity! 

ATM, Convertibles, STRK: The Right Tool at the Right Time

Remember that in this scenario, if BTC peaks, followed by a drawdown, Strategy will need to hit the ATM pretty hard to bring the leverage ratio (and thus the price) back down before a significant BTC drawdown. Hopefully, by then, the volume in the preferred shares (STRF and STRK) will be higher, and they can continue to buy through any BTC downturn. 

With recent news, STRK and STRF could take off sooner rather than later. 

If BTC Wins, Strategy Wins Bigger

Strategy has several tools in its arsenal to raise capital and control leverage (e.g., ATM, convertible debt, and perpetual shares). Maximising BTC Yield and MSTR's long-term stock value requires careful attention to the leverage ratio and deploying the right tool at the right time based on the current market price and volatility.  

Whether Bitcoin grinds higher or rockets to new highs, Strategy is locked and loaded to stack aggressively, without blowing itself up. With intelligent leverage, tactical funding tools, and a clear eye on risk, Strategy could end 2025 with up to 906k BTC and a BTC yield of 120% p.a.!

If Bitcoin wins, Strategy wins bigger—with an uncatchable position built on pristine collateral

What’s Your Prediction?  

How much BTC will Strategy stack by year-end? Drop your thoughts in the comments—and subscribe to get future updates straight to your inbox.