MSTR’s mNAV: The Wild Ride – How High (and Low) Can We Go?
MSTR’s multiple of net asset value (mNAV) is a rollercoaster—exciting, unpredictable, and sometimes downright terrifying.
While MSTR’s mNAV might appear erratic, the data provides clues to its long-term trajectory.
· The good news? MSTR’s mNAV is trending exponentially upward and to the right.
· The even better news? If history repeats, it could go MUCH higher.
· The bad news? There’s no guarantee we’ve hit the floor just yet.
As the bulls and bears battle it with massive bets in either direction—particularly in the options market—MSTR’s price and mNAV swing wildly.
For long-term holders, this volatility acts like a vortex, sucking more capital into the MSTR ecosystem. However, for short-term traders, mistiming the cycle can lead to financial pain.
So, how low can we go? And more importantly, how high can we climb?
In this article, we’ll decode MSTR’s mNAV, explore quantile regression models highlighting its historical patterns, and map out where it could be headed next—including price projections through December 2025.
Ready?
Buckle up!
Understanding mNAV: The Key to Unravelling MSTR’s Valuation Mystery
In our previous article, MSTR’s Mysterious mNAV: Solving the True Value Equation, we examined MSTR’s actual multiple of net asset value compared to its theoretical fair value mNAV (based on the BTC value it holds). The actual and fair values mNAV values follow a slow exponential trend up to the right.
As MicroStrategy transforms from a BTC holding company to a BTC Refinery and potentially the future BTC Bank of the world, people are willing to pay a higher premium for the BTC they hold.
As MSTR leverages up to buy more BTC, traders get FOMO and buy-in, driving the price up rapidly. Then, when it’s overextended, traders short it and drive the price back down. Eventually, when MSTR takes on more leverage and BTC rips, the shorts cover, and the cycle starts again.
· The good news for long-term MSTR common shareholders is that this massive options market acts like a vortex, attracting more money into the MSTR ecosystem.
· The bad news for short-term holders is that they can get rekt if they jump in at the top of the FOMO cycle and then ride swing back down.
But what if there were some guardrails to understand when MSTR is overbought or oversold based on long-term trends?
Quantile Regressions: The Math Behind Market Extremes
Quantile regression is a valuable concept that many (like PlanC, Sina & Sminston With) have been using to understand the long-term trends in Bitcoin.
The chart below shows the 1st, 33rd, 85th and 99th percentile quantile trend lines for the Bitcoin market cap. Notice how the quantile regression lines are coming together as Bitcoin becomes less volatile.
Bitcoin has been growing on an inevitable trajectory that only strengthens with time.
· The 1st percentile quantile can be seen as support, or it will only go below 1% of the time before rebounding up.
· Conversely, the 99th percentile is the upper limit; BTC only spends 1% of its life above it. BTC may go above this level but won’t stay there long.
Unfortunately, quantile regression doesn’t tell us anything about timing but provides a robust framework for understanding the normal range.
Is This Normal? Understanding mNAV in Historical Context
The chart below shows time vs. the natural log of the MSTR mNAV, with an exponential trend line (which becomes a straight line when plotted on the log scale).
The distribution chart below shows the residuals around the trend line with superimposed quantiles. The black line to the left shows the current price at the 6th percentile. So yes, we’re currently at the lower end of the normal mNAV range, but we’ve been lower than this 6% of the time over the past two and a half years.
2025 Forecast: The Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for mNAV
The following chart shows the mNAV quantile lines expanding ever wider as MicroStrategy masters harnessing the volatility.
Our final chart shows the mNAV converted to the normal price scale with labels for the trend lines at today’s date (31 Jan 2025) and 31 December 2025.
· The good news is that the mNAV trend is up and to the right. At the end of this year, the trend mNAV will increase from 2.6 to 3.4. At the extreme, mNAV could hit 5.4 at the end of 2025!
· Additionally, the lower bound of MSTR’s mNAV is trending up. However, 1st percentile right now is at 1.6, but this will increase to 2 by the end of 2025.
What Does This All Mean?
For long-term MSTR hodlers, this analysis shows that MSTR’s mNAV is not broken. While down right now, it’s still oscillating in the normal range. If you believe in the inevitability of Bitcoin, there’s a pretty good chance that MSTR’s mNAV will be shooting back up before too long (we just don’t know when).
For the traders, these quantile guardrails give some indication of good entry points for long and short trades. For example, if we’re below the 10th percentile quantile, it’s likely a good time to go long. Meanwhile, if we’re above the 90th percentile, it might be a good time to take some profits, use close trailing stops, or, if you’re feeling fearless, go short.
Where Does MSTR’s mNAV Go From Here?
MSTR’s mNAV is anything but predictable.
As we’ve seen, historical trends and quantile regression analysis provide valuable insights into its potential highs and lows, but volatility remains the only certainty.
- The good news? The long-term trend is moving up and to the right.
- The bad news? The swings can be brutal, and we haven’t necessarily seen the bottom yet.
- The wildcard? Market forces, liquidity cycles, and shifting investor sentiment could amplify or suppress future moves.
Looking ahead to December 2025, the data suggests mNAV could surge up to 5.4 or, in a worst-case scenario, drop back to 2.0.
Understanding these cycles can help traders and investors make more informed decisions—whether looking for entry points or bracing for turbulence.
What Do You Think?
📉 Are we at the bottom, or is there more downside ahead?
📈 Do you think MSTR’s mNAV could break new highs in 2025?
Drop a comment below, and let’s discuss where we’re headed next! 🚀👇