Why MetaPlanet Is Still Undervalued—Despite the Hype
MetaPlanet has outpaced every equity on the planet—but is it still undervalued? Let’s break down the numbers behind the premium, the stacking, and what the fair value says about its future.
In this article, we examine how to determine MetaPlanet’s fair value based on the premium the market values it at.
Fair value = bitcoin per share x bitcoin price x premium
The data shows that, while MetaPlanet has had a stellar run in recent weeks, it still has more room to run.
The Power of Premium
The price premium people are willing to pay is the key differentiator between the leaders and the also-rans in the leveraged bitcoin equity space.
MetaPlanet has been the fastest-growing equity in the world over the past year for several reasons.
· They have a captured market in Japan where locals can’t easily invest in BTC without being taxed heavily compared to shares.
· Simon Gerovich and Dylan LeClair have displayed relentless conviction in executing the Strategy playbook, with no signs of slowing down.
· Unique funding mechanisms are available in Japan without relying heavily on debt.
But how do we value that premium?
Price Tells the Story
Price is what everyone sees, and the trend is your friend.
MetaPlanet's returns have been stellar, with the best returns of any equity in the world since adopting the Strategy playbook.
They are growing quickly, so plenty of other investors get FOMO and follow the trend.
Relentless BTC Stacking
MetaPlanet has been relentless in its BTC stacking.
Due to its moving stock warrant ATM-style funding, they have also avoided buying at the tops and buying BTC at a discount by using put options on Bitcoin.
MetaPlanet’s BTC holdings have grown faster than any other BTC treasury company, with a steeper gradient on the log scale than any other BTC equity. While the exponential growth will have to slow eventually (because there are only so many BTC to buy), and they may never catch Strategy, they’re giving it a red hot crack!
MetaPlanet now hold 6,796 BTC.
Their last BTC purchase bumped their stack by 20% in one hit, demonstrating that they are extremely serious about stacking bitcoin as quickly as possible!
BTC Value Keeps Climbing
BTC Value per share is the BTC per share multiplied by the BTC price. While the price of BTC fluctuates, MetaPlanet’s BTC value per share has continued to rise because of relentless stacking.
Why mNAV Matters
While many newer leveraged bitcoin equities talk big with no track record and create pump-and-dumps, a demonstrated track record makes people willing to pay a premium.
Investors believe MetaPlanet can continue to stack Bitcoin faster than anyone else, so they’re willing to pay a premium. Excessive ATM-style selling drives the price down, decreasing the mNAV, but at the same time, accretive dilution drives BTC value per share up over the long term, so it’s a delicate balance.
MetaPlanet’s mNAV spiked at over 10 in February but dropped to above three recently as they’ve pushed for accretive dilution to buy more BTC.
Their recent earnings presentation showed they are happy to run the ATM when their mNAV is above 3.0, while MSTR uses a lower limit of 2.0.
The BTC MetaPlanet Value Proposition
To visualise how MetaPlanet's fundamentals connect with its price action, we chart BTC value per share against price on a log-log scale. While we still have less data for MetaPlanet than Strategy, we can see a solid relationship between the two with an R2 of 0.88. The mNAV premium is baked into this gradient.
We can then use this relationship to calculate Metaplanet's current fair value, which is around 690 Yen above the current value.
How We Find Fair Value
As we can see on the chart below, the fair value (green line) runs through the middle of the price to date, with the actual price oscillating above and below this value based on fear and greed, driven by market news.
Our analysis shows that MetaPlanet is trading at 623 Yen below its current fair value price of 743 Yen. At the bottom of the chart, we’ve shown the fair value percentage oscillator, which currently sits at 35%. While MetaPlanet has been rocketing up recently, it appears it will stll have a long way to go before it’s overbought. The risk-reward looks compelling with MetaPlanet sitting near the 35th percentile.
Fair Value Ranges
If you hang on X, you’ll see plenty of people whinging about the current price and asking, ‘when moon’, which can be disheartening. People who have been holding for a while or bought at the peak are wondering when the price will go higher, and others want to know when it might be a good time to buy.
So, to provide more clarity, we’ve also shown the fair value ranges at the 5th, 1st, 85th, and 95th percentiles. While the 5th and 95th are extremes, and price will only go above or below 5% of the time, price should stay between the 15th and 85th percentile ranges 70% of the time.
If the percentile rank oscillator is low, it’s a safe time to buy, especially if the BTC price is also suppressed. Conversely, you may take profits when the percentile rank is high.
Conclusion
MetaPlanet’s explosive growth isn’t just hype—it’s backed by data, strategy, and relentless BTC accumulation.
· Current price: ¥623
· Estimated fair value: ¥743
· BTC held: 6,796 BTC
· mNAV premium range: 3.0–10.0
· R² with BTC Value/share: 0.88
While short-term price swings will come and go, the fair value model shows MetaPlanet still has significant upside. For investors who understand the signal behind the noise, the opportunity is clear.
We’ll continue tracking MetaPlanet as the data-driven story unfolds. Get the next update straight to your inbox with MicroStrategist Pro.